All chapters全部章节 When You Forget, I'll Remember你忘了,我记得

When You Forget, I'll Remember你忘了,我记得

Chapter 13. Confidently Wrong第十三章 错得理直气壮

A manga for grown-ups. Read it in English or Chinese.给大人看的漫画。可以用中文或英文读。

Evening, the one warm lamp, the balcony glass deep blue behind. Grandpa Chen, eighty-one, in his grey cardigan, sits at the round folding table, three-quarter towards the viewer's RIGHT, holding one small round yellow pill up between finger and thumb of his RIGHT hand towards the lamp, frowning at it, puzzled. On the table before him stands Willow's smooth white pill box, its round orange light glowing softly; beside it, to its LEFT, the old Lantern speaker with its orange button dull. The cream wristband with its small orange light rests on his LEFT wrist on the table. The people are solid and opaque; reflections only on empty glass. His face in the middle band; the dim wall above is the quiet area for the title. No writing anywhere.
Chapter 13第十三章Confidently Wrong错得理直气壮
Monday 7 September, seven in the morning, clear early sun low over the lake, a thin mist on the water. A wide calm view along the lakeside path. In the near RIGHT foreground Xiaoyu walks towards the stone tables, pulling a small dark-green suitcase with her RIGHT hand, a canvas bag on her LEFT shoulder, seen three-quarter from behind, her ponytail down her back, her face turned a little to the LEFT. Across the still lake behind: the old arched stone bridge, and beyond it a few slim new towers with gardens spilling green from every terrace and roof, and one quiet white electric boat with a small solar canopy, gliding with no wake. Under the willows in the LEFT middle distance stands a row of stone tables. At one, small, Grandpa and Auntie Zhang sit at a chessboard carved into the table top; beside the next table a small pale-green robot tea cart pours tea into a paper cup for nobody. Every other table is empty. Calm, one focal line from Xiaoyu to Grandpa. The big quiet sky in the top third is the area for the captions. No crowds, no signs, no writing.
Part III. The World Where Anything Is Possible.第三部分 无所不能的世界
Bridge City, Monday 7 September 2037. I was twenty-two. I had come back to start a PhD, and to be near Grandpa.2037年9月7日,星期一,桥城。那年我二十二岁,回来读博,也想离外公近一点。
1
Monday, ten past seven, gold low sun through the willows. Grandpa sits on his stool at the LEFT, side-on and facing RIGHT, his glasses ON, his red notebook open on his knee, writing in it with a short pencil in his RIGHT hand; we see the notebook's back cover and never its pages. Uncle Wu's old biscuit tin stands open by the carved board. Auntie Zhang stands at the RIGHT behind the far stool with her cloth bag, smiling towards Xiaoyu off panel at the RIGHT. The cream wristband with its dim orange dot is on his LEFT wrist. The people are solid and opaque. Two faces in the middle band; the willow above is the quiet area.
Every morning he still set out a chess game played by his late friend, Uncle Wu.外公每天早上还是会摆一盘已故老友吴爷爷下过的棋。
‹Xiaoyu! You're here at last!›小雨!你可算回来了!
Same gold light. Close on Grandpa, glasses on his nose, looking up and RIGHT at Xiaoyu off panel, delighted, the pencil still in his RIGHT hand at the bottom of the panel. His face in the middle of the panel; the willow behind is the quiet area.
‹Xiaoyu! Have you come home to stay?›小雨!这回不走了吧?
Same morning. The small pale-green robot tea cart has rolled up beside the stone table at the RIGHT, its one simple jointed arm holding out a paper cup of tea. It has no face, no eyes, no screen; its small light is blue. At the LEFT edge of the panel Grandpa's RIGHT hand, a smooth manga hand, is flat with the palm up, waving the cup away. No face. The willow trunk behind is the quiet area.
‹Good morning, Mr Chen. Would you like your usual tea?›陈爷爷早!还是老样子,来杯茶?
Same morning. Auntie Zhang at the LEFT and Xiaoyu at the RIGHT stand a step away from the stone table, talking low, close together. Behind them, small, Grandpa sits on his stool bent over his notebook, his thermos on the ground beside his stool. Two faces in the middle band; the willow above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹No, thank you. I bring my own tea.›不用,我自己带了茶。
‹He writes in that red book every day, and lets no one read it.›他天天往小红本上记东西,谁也不让看。
Same morning, a moment later. Grandpa has risen from his stool and sways, his LEFT hand catching the edge of the stone table, the cream wristband on that wrist; Xiaoyu at the RIGHT grabs his RIGHT elbow with both hands, alarmed; Auntie Zhang stands behind them at the RIGHT with one hand out. Three faces in the upper middle of the panel; the ground and the stone table below are the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹Willow, the care AI, changed his night pill last Friday. He has been dizzy since.›上周五,管他的AI小柳把他晚上的药换了,打那以后他老头晕。
2
Monday, eight in the evening, the one warm lamp on, the balcony glass dark blue. Grandpa sits at the round folding table at the LEFT in his cardigan; Xiaoyu stands at the RIGHT with a glass of water in her RIGHT hand. On the table between them stands Willow's smooth white pill box with its round orange light glowing; beside it, to its LEFT, the old Lantern speaker, its orange button dull. A small white cup has just slid out of the box's little drawer. The silver tape player stands on the side table by the armchair behind. The people are solid and opaque; reflections only on empty glass. Two faces in the middle band; the dim wall above is the quiet area.
Willow was the city care service's AI. It planned Grandpa's pills, and a doctor signed its plans.小柳是市照护中心的人工智能。外公的药都由它安排,再由医生签字。
‹Good evening, Mr Chen. Time for your night pill.›陈爷爷晚上好,该吃睡前那颗药了。
Same lamp. Close from above: the small white cup in the pill box's drawer, one small round YELLOW pill in it. Grandpa's RIGHT forefinger, a smooth manga finger, at the edge of the cup, about to tip it. No face. The pale table around is the quiet area.
click咔嗒
Same lamp. Close on Grandpa holding the small yellow pill up between finger and thumb of his RIGHT hand, frowning at it, looking LEFT at it. His face in the middle of the panel; the dim wall behind is the quiet area.
‹This one looks wrong. Mine is white.›这颗不对啊。我那个是白的。
Same lamp. Close on Xiaoyu, looking LEFT at Grandpa off panel, worried; she holds the glass of water in her RIGHT hand low at the edge of the panel. Her face in the upper middle of the panel; the dim wall and lamplight below are the quiet area.
I wanted Grandpa well and at home, beside his own lake, for as long as possible.我只盼外公好好的,在自己家守着他的湖,住得越久越好。
3
Same lamp, a minute later. Xiaoyu crouches at the RIGHT beside Grandpa's chair, speaking to Willow's pill box on the table; Grandpa sits at the LEFT still holding the yellow pill in his RIGHT hand. Two faces in the middle band; the dim wall above is the quiet area.
‹Willow, has my grandpa taken this yellow pill before? How do you know?›小柳,我外公以前吃过这种黄药片吗?你怎么知道?
Same lamp. Close on the white pill box on the table, its orange light glowing warm; beside it, to its LEFT and out of focus, the old Lantern speaker with its orange button dull. No face. The dim wall behind is the quiet area.
‹Mr Chen took it before with no problems. Bridge City No. 2 Hospital, 14 March 2031, Dr Liu.›陈爷爷以前吃过,没出过问题。桥城第二医院,2031年3月14日,刘医生。
Same lamp. Close on Xiaoyu, eyebrows up, impressed, looking RIGHT at the pill box off panel (the opposite eyeline). Her face in the middle of the panel; the dim wall behind is the quiet area.
It named a hospital, a date and a doctor.哪家医院、哪天、哪个医生,它全说得出。
Same lamp. Xiaoyu at the RIGHT hands Grandpa the glass of water with her RIGHT hand; Grandpa at the LEFT, reassured, lifts the yellow pill towards his lips with his RIGHT hand. Two faces in the middle band; the dim wall above is the quiet area.
‹It's all right, Grandpa. Willow checked your records, and this pill is safe.›没事的外公,小柳查过您的病历了,这药能吃。
Monday, eleven at night, only the bedside lamp. Xiaoyu sits on her old narrow bed unpacking, a folded jumper in her lap, her suitcase open on the floor, her face turned down and thoughtful. Her black watch is on her LEFT wrist. One face in the upper middle of the panel; the dark wall and the quilt below are the quiet area.
I had come to Bridge City to study AI. And I believed Willow, because it sounded so sure.我回桥城就是来学人工智能的,可我还是信了小柳,因为它说得那么肯定。
4
Tuesday 8 September, nine in the morning, bright light through tall windows over the campus courtyard and its ginkgo trees. Professor Lin stands at the front on the LEFT beside the big wall screen. A few new students sit at the long pale desk in the RIGHT foreground seen from behind, Xiaoyu among them (her ponytail, her back to us); Teo sits at the far RIGHT end of the desk in profile, turned to the LEFT, his small clear earbud on the far side. The wall screen hangs on the front wall and shows a plain page of a court paper, painted BLANK, the words lettered in afterwards. The people are solid and opaque. Lin's face and Teo's profile in the middle band; the pale wall above is the quiet area.
On Tuesday I met Professor Lin's lab.星期二,我第一次去林教授的实验室。
Six court cases that never existed. New York, 2023.六个根本不存在的判例。纽约,2023年。
Same bright morning. Close on Professor Lin, looking RIGHT at the students off panel, dry and sharp, one hand flat on the desk at the bottom of the panel. Her face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area.
‹Your first lesson. A machine can be completely sure and completely wrong.›第一课。机器可以十分自信,又错得离谱。
Same bright morning, same framing. Professor Lin looking RIGHT at the students off panel, her RIGHT forefinger raised, exact and firm. Her face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area.
‹Certainty is not evidence. Write that down.›自信不是证据。记下来。
Same morning, after the talk. At the long desk by the window, Teo at the LEFT is half turned to the RIGHT towards Xiaoyu, so we see his LEFT ear, bare; the earbud is in his far RIGHT ear, hidden. He holds out a paper cup of tea in his RIGHT hand. Xiaoyu at the RIGHT sits with her laptop open, its back to us, surprised, looking LEFT at him. Old campus buildings through the window behind. On the wall between the windows above them hangs one framed printed page, its lines painted as plain grey bars with NO letters, and six of the bars are struck through in thick red pen, like a warning the whole lab can see. The people are solid and opaque. Two faces low in the lower middle of the panel; the bright window wall above is the quiet area for the box.
MADE-UP CASES. In 2023 two lawyers in New York gave a court a paper that cited at least six cases that did not exist. A chat assistant had made them up, with case numbers and quotes. The judge fined them 5,000 dollars.凭空编造的判例。2023年,纽约两名律师向法院交了一份材料,引用了至少六个根本不存在的判例。这些判例是聊天助手编的,连案号和引文都有。法官罚了他们5000美元。
I'm Teo. On the first day, everyone hears the story of the two lawyers and the made-up cases.我叫特奥。来的第一天,谁都得听一遍那两个律师和编造判例的故事。
5
Wednesday 9 September, half past four in the morning, dark, the landing bulb a small warm glow, the high window black. Grandpa, dressed in his cardigan and black cloth shoes, comes out through the open dark green metal gate of the flat at the LEFT onto the landing, his RIGHT hand on the gate, half asleep, heading for the stairs down at the RIGHT. The cream wristband glows a faint orange on his LEFT wrist. One face, three-quarter to the RIGHT, in the middle band; the dark wall above is the quiet area. The gate stays OPEN behind him; he is out on the landing side.
At half past four on Wednesday morning, Grandpa set off for the lake. He thought it was already day.星期三凌晨四点半,外公出门要去湖边,他以为天已经亮了。
Same dark stairwell, the bulb behind and above. Grandpa has gone two steps down the concrete stairs and sways, his RIGHT hand reaching for the rail and missing it, his eyes unfocused. One face in the middle of the panel. The dark wall behind is the quiet area. No line.
Same stairwell. Close: Grandpa sits hard on a step, his RIGHT hand, grazed, held against his chest, his LEFT wrist resting on his knee with the cream wristband glowing orange. The picture is cropped at his shoulders so there is no face. The dark stair below is the quiet area.
‹Fall detected. Mr Chen, please stay still. I have woken your granddaughter.›检测到跌倒。陈爷爷,请不要动,我已经叫醒您外孙女了。
Same stairwell, the bulb above. Xiaoyu, in her sleep clothes (a big grey t-shirt and loose dark trousers, barefoot), kneels two steps below Grandpa and holds his face in both hands. Grandpa sits on the step above looking down at her, frightened and lost. The people are solid and opaque. Two faces in the middle band; the dark wall above is the quiet area.
‹Huihui, my daughter, is that you? Why is it so dark?›慧慧,我闺女,是你吗?天怎么还这么黑?
Same stairwell. The two sit together on the step, Xiaoyu's arm round Grandpa's shoulders, his grazed hand in her lap, the landing bulb above them. Xiaoyu looks down, stricken. Two faces in the upper middle of the panel; the dark stair below is the quiet area.
I had told him the pill was safe because Willow checked. I had handed it to him myself.是我跟他说,小柳查过了,药没问题。那颗药,还是我亲手递给他的。
6
Wednesday, nine in the morning, bright. Dr He sits at the round table at the LEFT, holding her tablet in its grey case upright in her LEFT hand, so we see its back and its glow on her face. Grandpa sits small and side-on in the olive armchair in the far LEFT background, a small plaster on his RIGHT hand. Auntie Zhang stands behind the table; Xiaoyu stands at the RIGHT. Willow's white pill box glows beside the dull Lantern speaker on the table. Three clear faces in the middle band, Grandpa small and far; the wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹Mr Chen may fall. Care review: Friday at ten.›陈爷爷有跌倒风险。已约好周五上午十点做照护评估。
‹He should move to Lakeview Care Home.›我建议他住进湖景养老院。
Same bright morning. Close on Xiaoyu, looking LEFT at Dr He off panel, urgent. Her face in the middle of the panel; the wall behind is the quiet area.
‹Dr He, he got dizzy the night Willow started the yellow pill. Please stop it.›何医生,小柳一换黄药片,他当晚就头晕了。先停了吧,求您。
Same morning. Close on Dr He, looking RIGHT at Xiaoyu off panel (the opposite eyeline), tired, kind and certain. Her face in the middle of the panel; the wall behind is the quiet area.
‹Willow read his whole file. It is right more often than I am. Wait until Friday.›小柳把他病历全看过,比我准的时候多。等周五再说。
Wednesday, half past nine, morning sun through the small kitchen window. Auntie Zhang stands at the kitchen counter at the RIGHT peeling a pear for Grandpa, the knife and the pear in her hands, not unkind; Xiaoyu stands in the kitchen doorway at the LEFT, one hand on the frame. Two faces in the middle band; the kitchen wall above is the quiet area.
‹Willow comes from some big company in America. In a year it has never got his pills wrong.›小柳是美国一家大公司做的。一年了,他的药一回都没弄错过。
‹I have looked after him for ten years. You have been home three days.›我照顾他十年了,你才回来三天。
Wednesday, late morning, grey light from the high window. Xiaoyu stands alone on the landing outside the open metal gate, her back against the wall, looking at the stairs down. One face in the upper middle of the panel; the wall and the concrete floor below are the quiet area. The gate behind her is OPEN, with nobody in it.
To them I was only a student who loved her grandpa. The review was in two days.在他们眼里,我不过是个心疼外公的学生。离评估只剩两天。
7
Wednesday, two in the afternoon, white afternoon light, the lab empty but for them. Professor Lin stands at her standing desk at the LEFT by the window, reading her own laptop seen from its back, its glow on her face. Xiaoyu stands at the RIGHT holding a printed page of Willow's care plan in both hands, anxious. The people are solid and opaque. Two faces in the middle band; the pale wall above is the quiet area.
‹Professor Lin, my grandpa's care AI is sure about something wrong. Could the lab test it?›林教授,我外公的护理AI说错了,还说得特别肯定。咱们实验室能测测它吗?
Same white light. Close on Professor Lin, not looking up at first, then looking RIGHT at Xiaoyu off panel over the top of her laptop, cool. Her face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area.
‹That care company's model is not our research. One old man is a single case, not data.›那家公司的模型,不在我们的研究范围里。一位老人只是一个个例,算不上数据。
Same white light, same framing. Professor Lin looking RIGHT at Xiaoyu off panel, firmer, her RIGHT hand flat on the desk edge. Her face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area.
‹Your first results are due on Friday. Decide what to spend your time on.›你第一批结果周五要交。时间花在哪儿,你自己掂量。
Same afternoon. Xiaoyu walks out of the lab at the RIGHT towards the door, the printed page crumpling in her LEFT hand; at the long desk at the LEFT Teo looks up from his laptop and watches her go, turned to the RIGHT so we see his LEFT ear, bare. The people are solid and opaque. Two faces in the upper middle of the panel; the pale floor and desks below are the quiet area. The lab door ahead of her at the RIGHT is OPEN; she is still inside the lab.
"Certainty is not evidence," Professor Lin had told us the day before.林教授前一天刚说过,“自信不是证据。”
8
Wednesday, four in the afternoon, warm hazy light on the lake, the garden towers soft across the water. On a bench on the lakeside path Teo sits at the LEFT and Xiaoyu at the RIGHT, each with a paper cup of tea from the robot cart, which rolls away small in the background. Xiaoyu's cup trembles a little in her RIGHT hand; Teo glances at it. Two faces in the middle band; the willows and sky above are the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
Teo found me by the lake.特奥在湖边找到了我。
I can explain why a model is wrong in such a sure voice. I study it.模型为什么错了还说得那么肯定,我能给你讲讲。我就是研究这个的。
Same hazy light. Close on Teo, turned to the RIGHT so we see his LEFT ear, bare, looking RIGHT at Xiaoyu off panel, quiet and exact. His face in the middle of the panel; the soft lake behind is the quiet area.
Willow isn't lying. To lie, it would have to know the truth.小柳不是在撒谎。撒谎得先知道真话是什么。
Same light. Close on Xiaoyu, looking LEFT at Teo off panel, puzzled and listening. Her face in the middle of the panel; the soft lake behind is the quiet area.
Then what did it do when it said "no problems before"?那它说“以前吃过没问题”,算怎么回事?
Same bench, the lake behind. Teo at the LEFT, smiling and sure of himself, has just flicked a coin up off his RIGHT thumb; the coin spins in the air above his hand. Xiaoyu at the RIGHT watches the coin. The coin is the focal point. Two faces low in the lower middle of the panel; the sky and willows above are the quiet area for the box. The people are solid and opaque.
WHY A MODEL GUESSES. A language model writes the likeliest next words. They are usually true, not always. A fact seen only once is hard to learn. Most tests score right answers and give nothing for "I don't know", so models learn to guess.为什么模型会瞎猜。语言模型写的是最可能接下去的话,多半是真的,但不总是。只见过一次的事,很难学会。大多数测试答对给分,答“不知道”不给分,模型就学会了猜。
It guessed. Its guesses sound just as smooth.它在瞎猜。瞎猜也说得一样顺。
Same afternoon. Xiaoyu stands up from the bench, the paper cup in her LEFT hand, an idea clearing in her face, looking down and LEFT at Teo off panel. Her face in the upper middle of the panel; the lake below is the quiet area.
Then I'll ask Willow about something that never happened.那我就问小柳一件压根没发生过的事。
9
Wednesday, seven in the evening, the lamp on. Grandpa sits in the olive armchair at the LEFT with his tea glass on the side table beside him. Xiaoyu kneels at the RIGHT by the chair arm, her sky-blue phone in her RIGHT hand, held low and recording, so we see the phone's back; she leans towards the cream wristband on his LEFT wrist. Two faces in the middle band; the wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹Willow, when did my grandpa break his leg? How do you know?›小柳,我外公是哪年摔断腿的?你怎么知道?
Same lamp. Close on Grandpa's LEFT wrist resting on the chair arm, the cardigan cuff above it, the cream band's small orange light glowing. No face. The olive chair arm around it is the quiet area.
‹Mr Chen broke his left leg in November 2030 and recovered well. Bridge City No. 2 Hospital.›陈爷爷2030年11月摔断了左腿,恢复得很好。桥城第二医院。
Same lamp. Close on Grandpa sitting up in the armchair, outraged and comic, slapping his own knee with his RIGHT hand at the bottom of the panel, looking down at his wristband off panel. His face in the middle of the panel; the wall behind is the quiet area.
‹What leg? I have never broken a bone in my life!›什么腿?我这辈子一根骨头都没断过!
Same lamp. Grandpa stands carefully at the LEFT with one hand on the chair back and stamps one foot to show his good legs; Xiaoyu at the RIGHT laughs despite herself, the phone still recording in her RIGHT hand, its back to us. Two faces in the middle band; the wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹Look! Eighty-one years on these two legs!›你瞧!这两条腿,我走了八十一年了!
Same lamp. Xiaoyu close, looking down at the phone held in both hands, its back to us; the laugh fades into resolve. Her face in the upper middle of the panel; the lamplit sofa below is the quiet area.
In the same warm, sure voice, Willow had made up a broken leg. Now I had proof.小柳还是那么温和、那么肯定,凭空编出了一条断腿。这下我有证据了。
10
Thursday 10 September, eight in the morning, sun through the small kitchen window. Auntie Zhang sits at the small table at the RIGHT with her tea. Xiaoyu stands at the LEFT and holds her phone out flat on her RIGHT palm between them, playing the recording; seen from the side, edge-on, so no screen shows. Two faces in the middle band; the kitchen wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
On Thursday I played the recording to Auntie Zhang.星期四,我把录音放给张阿姨听。
‹…broke his left leg in November 2030 and recovered well.›…2030年11月摔断了左腿,恢复得很好。
Same morning. Close on Auntie Zhang, looking LEFT at Xiaoyu off panel, fair and unmoved, her cup of tea in her hands at the bottom of the panel. Her face in the middle of the panel; the kitchen wall behind is the quiet area.
‹So it got a leg wrong. Does that mean it is wrong about his pill?›腿是它说错了。那就能说明药也弄错了?
Same morning. Close on Xiaoyu, looking RIGHT at Auntie Zhang off panel (the opposite eyeline), stuck, no answer. Her face in the middle of the panel; the kitchen wall behind is the quiet area.
She was right. Willow making up a leg did not prove the pill was bad.她说得对。小柳编出一条腿,并不能证明那颗药有问题。
Thursday, nine at night in Bridge City, two in the afternoon in Edinburgh. Over Xiaoyu's RIGHT shoulder from behind, her ponytail in the LEFT foreground, as she sits on her bed holding the phone in both hands; on the phone's lit screen, small and clear, Mama at fifty-two sits at her Edinburgh kitchen table in daylight, in a navy jumper, tired, a hand at her temple. One face (Mama's, small). The dim room around is the quiet area.
The city care service sent me Willow's report on Grandpa.市照护中心把小柳给外公写的报告发我了。
Maybe a care home is safer, Xiaoyu. And I can't be there.小雨,也许去养老院更安全些。我又没法在他身边。
Thursday, eleven at night, the landing bulb. Xiaoyu sits on the top step just outside the flat's open metal gate, wrapped in a thin pale blue blanket, knees up, keeping watch; the dark stairs fall away below her. One face in the middle band; the dark wall above is the quiet area. A feeling picture. The gate stands OPEN behind her; she sits out on the landing, not behind the bars. Only ONE door is in view, Grandpa's open dark green gate at the LEFT; the right side of the landing is plain wall, no second door or gate.
That night I slept on the top step, so he could not fall there again.那天夜里,我就睡在楼梯最上面那级台阶上,不让他再从那儿摔下去。
11
Friday 11 September, five in the morning, grey first light from the high window. Xiaoyu wakes on the top step, the pale blue blanket slipping from her shoulders, looking down the stairs. One face, three-quarter, in the middle band; the grey wall above is the quiet area. Only ONE door is in view, Grandpa's open dark green gate at the LEFT; the right side of the landing is plain wall, no second door or gate.
Friday. The review was at ten.星期五。评估定在上午十点。
Same grey light. Close on Xiaoyu, eyes clearing as the thought arrives, looking straight ahead and a little down. Her face in the middle of the panel; the grey wall behind is the quiet area.
Willow sounded sure. That is not proof.小柳说得再肯定也不算数。我得找到白纸黑字。
Same grey light. Grandpa stands at the open metal gate at the LEFT, dressed, clear-eyed, looking down at Xiaoyu off panel, puzzled and fond, his RIGHT hand on the gate. His face in the middle of the panel; the grey wall behind is the quiet area. The gate is swung OPEN; Grandpa stands in the gateway on the flat side of the threshold, not behind the bars, with Xiaoyu on the top step just outside.
‹Xiaoyu? Why are you sleeping on the stairs?›小雨?你怎么睡楼梯上了?
Same grey light. Grandpa sits down slowly beside Xiaoyu on the top step, his hand pressing on the step to lower himself; Xiaoyu at the RIGHT turns to him. Same stair as 12.1: the open gate of the flat behind Grandpa at the LEFT, the stair rail at the RIGHT edge beyond Xiaoyu, NO rail on the left. His red notebook shows in his RIGHT cardigan pocket. Two faces in the middle band; the grey wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹Grandpa, did a yellow pill ever make you ill?›外公,黄药片让您难受过吗?
‹I don't remember. If it mattered, I wrote it down.›记不得了。要紧的事,我都记下了。
Same grey light, the moment after the hand-off. Xiaoyu holds the small red notebook closed in both hands in her lap; Grandpa's RIGHT hand still rests on top of it, on hers. Both faces in the upper middle of the panel, Grandpa's three-quarter; the stair below is the quiet area. A feeling picture.
‹Take my notebook. Read only what you need.›本子你拿去,只看你要的那几页。
12
Friday, half past five, the kitchen bulb and grey dawn at the small window. Xiaoyu sits at the small table at the LEFT, bent over the open notebook that she holds flat with her LEFT hand, turning a page with her RIGHT; we see her face and the notebook's top edge, never its pages. Grandpa stands at the counter at the RIGHT making tea, his hands sure on the kettle. Two faces in the middle band; the wall above is the quiet area.
Grandpa made tea. His hands still knew how. I looked for the word "pill".外公去泡茶,那双手还记得怎么泡。我在本子里找“药”字。
Same kitchen. From above: the notebook lies open flat on the kitchen table, two facing pages of small lined cream paper, a few short dated lines on each, soft and blurred at phone size, painted BLANK; the name 小雨 is lettered in afterwards on each page. No people. The wooden table around it is the quiet area.
My name was on every page. I turned past them without reading.每一页都写着我的名字。我一页页翻过去,没有读。
小雨小雨
Same kitchen, from above. A notebook page with a few short lines, blurred, being turned by Xiaoyu's RIGHT fingertips at the page edge; her LEFT wrist and watch are out of the shot. The blurred lines are painted BLANK. The table around is the quiet area.
I read only the pages about pills. The rest was his.我只看了写药的那几页。其余的,是他自己的。
Same kitchen, from above. The 2029 page lies open and flat, held at its bottom edge by Xiaoyu's LEFT hand with the black watch on that wrist. The page is small lined cream paper, painted BLANK; the three lines of Grandpa's handwriting in blue-black ballpoint, a little faded, are lettered in afterwards. No face. The table around is the quiet area.
5 March 2029. "The yellow pill made me dizzy. Dr Gao at Lotus Lane says never again."
二〇二九年三月五日二〇二九年三月五日
黄药片,吃了头晕,楼梯上差点摔了。黄药片,吃了头晕,楼梯上差点摔了。
荷花巷高医生说,这药再不能吃了。荷花巷高医生说,这药再不能吃了。
Same kitchen. Close on Xiaoyu, her RIGHT hand over her mouth, eyes wet, looking down at the page off panel. Her face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area. No line.
Same kitchen, the light brightening. Grandpa sets a glass of tea by Xiaoyu's elbow with his RIGHT hand; Xiaoyu at the LEFT looks up at him, the notebook open under her palm, its pages away from us. Two faces in the upper middle of the panel; the table below is the quiet area.
‹Found it? Good. I always said, write it down.›找着了?好嘛。我早说过,要写下来。
13
Friday, seven in the morning, clear light through the balcony glass. Xiaoyu stands at the round table at the RIGHT, her phone in her LEFT hand the ordinary way, its back to us, speaking to Willow's white pill box and the dull Lantern speaker beside it on the table at the LEFT. One face in the middle band; the pale wall above is the quiet area.
‹Willow, how do you know he took that pill safely? Show me the 14 March 2031 record.›小柳,你怎么知道他吃这药没事?把2031年3月14日的记录调给我看。
Same morning. Close on Xiaoyu's sky-blue phone lying on the round table, its screen filling the picture, showing a plain record page painted BLANK, the words lettered in afterwards. No person. The wood around it is the quiet area.
14 March 2031. Bridge City No. 2 Hospital, Eye Clinic. Dr Liu. New reading glasses.2031年3月14日 桥城第二医院眼科 刘医生 配新老花镜。
Same morning. Close on Grandpa at the table, lifting the glasses on their cord from his chest with his RIGHT hand, amused, looking RIGHT at the phone off panel. His face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area.
‹My glasses! That was the day I got these.›我的眼镜!就是那天配的这副。
Same morning light. On the round table between them lie Xiaoyu's phone, face down, and Grandpa's paper hospital record book, open, its pages painted BLANK with NO letters. Xiaoyu at the RIGHT, low in the picture, has her RIGHT forefinger on the open record book, checking it. Grandpa at the LEFT holds his glasses up to his eyes with his RIGHT hand and leans in to read the same page. Two faces low in the lower middle of the panel; the pale wall above is the quiet area for the box. The people are solid and opaque.
‹The record is real. It says nothing about a pill.›记录是真的,可没提药。
LOOKING THINGS UP FIRST. Some assistants search a set of documents first, then answer and say where they found it, so people can check. That means fewer made-up answers, but not none. Retelling a document, a model can still change it or add to it.先查再答。有些助手先在一批文件里查,再回答,并说明在哪儿查到的,方便人核对。这样编造会少些,但不会没有。模型转述文件时,仍可能改动或添油加醋。
Same morning. Xiaoyu close, the red notebook in her LEFT hand and the phone in her RIGHT, held side by side at her chest with their backs to us, looking at them. Her face in the upper middle of the panel; the pale wall below is the quiet area.
Willow had read the record of the eye check, then added words that sounded right. Grandpa had written down what really happened.那次配眼镜的记录小柳是读过的,可它又添上了听着像那么回事的话。外公写下的,才是真事。
14
Friday, ten in the morning, bright. At the round table Dr He sits at the LEFT with her tablet held upright, its back to us; Grandpa sits in the middle on the far side of the table, facing us, in his cardigan; Xiaoyu sits at the RIGHT. Auntie Zhang stands small behind Grandpa, her hands on the back of his chair. Willow's white box glows beside the dull Lantern speaker. Xiaoyu's phone stands propped on the table for Mama's call, seen only from its back. Three faces, Zhang's small, in the middle band; the wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
At ten, the review. Mama joined from Edinburgh at three in the morning her time.十点,评估开始。妈妈在爱丁堡连线进来,她那边是凌晨三点。
‹Willow, your recommendation, please.›小柳,说说你的建议吧。
Same bright room. Close on Willow's white pill box on the table, its orange light glowing warm. No face. The table and the pale wall behind are the quiet area.
‹Mr Chen's risk of falling is rising. I recommend Lakeview Care Home from 1 October.›陈爷爷跌倒的风险正在上升。我建议自10月1日起转入湖景养老院。
Same room. Close on Grandpa, looking LEFT at Dr He off panel, indignant. His face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area.
‹Lakeview? Do they have chess at Lakeview?›湖景?那儿有人下棋吗?
Same room. Close from above: Xiaoyu's two hands lay the open red notebook (the 2029 page) and her phone (the 2031 record) side by side on the table in front of Dr He. The black watch is on her LEFT wrist. The page and the screen are set the right way up for Dr He across the table, so they are upside down to Xiaoyu. No face. The pale table around them is the quiet area.
‹Before you sign, please read these. Grandpa wrote this page in 2029.›签字前,请先看看这两样东西。这一页是外公2029年写的。
‹And this is the 2031 record Willow cited.›这份就是小柳说的2031年那份记录。
Same room, the room quiet. Dr He close, reading closely, her RIGHT forefinger resting on the notebook line, her tablet set down. Her face in the upper middle of the panel; the table below is the quiet area.
‹Dr Gao of Lotus Lane taught me. His clinic closed in 2031, and its notes were all on paper, never in the computer.›荷花巷的高医生,是我的老师。他那诊所2031年就关了,病历全是手写的,从来没进过电脑。
15
Same room. Dr He at the LEFT turns to Willow's pill box on the table, very level; Xiaoyu at the RIGHT holds her breath. Two faces in the middle band; the wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹Willow, where does it say Mr Chen took the yellow pill safely? How do you know?›小柳,哪儿写着陈爷爷吃黄药片没事?你是怎么知道的?
Same room. Close on Willow's pill box, its orange light glowing a little dimmer. No face. The table behind is the quiet area.
‹I cannot find that in his records.›在他的记录里,我找不到这一条。
Same room, same framing. Willow's pill box, the orange light small and low. No face. The table behind is the quiet area.
‹I should have said I was not sure.›我当时应该说,我不确定。
Same room. Dr He, decisive, taps the tablet with her RIGHT forefinger, the tablet held upright in her LEFT hand so we see its back. One face in the middle band; the wall above is the quiet area.
‹Stop the yellow pill tonight. Back to his white one. And the review is cancelled.›黄药片今晚就停,换回他原来的白药片。评估取消。
Same room, warmer light. Xiaoyu cries at last with relief, her forehead against Grandpa's shoulder; Grandpa pats her back with his RIGHT hand, puzzled and kind. Two faces in the upper middle of the panel, hers half hidden; the table below is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque. A feeling picture.
‹Why are you crying, child? Nobody is taking me anywhere.›傻孩子,哭什么?谁也不会把我送走。
16
Friday, twenty to eleven. Dr He stands at the open dark green metal gate in the LEFT wall, her dark green bag on her shoulder, leaving; Xiaoyu stands inside at the RIGHT holding the gate. The blue chess bag hangs on its hook beside the gate. Two faces in the middle band; the wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque. The gate is OPEN; Dr He stands in the gateway on the landing side of the threshold, Xiaoyu just inside the flat, nobody behind the bars.
‹I sign a hundred of Willow's plans a day.›小柳的方案,我一天要签一百份。
‹It is right so often that I stopped asking how it knows.›它对的时候太多了,我也就不再问它是怎么知道的。
Same door. Close on Dr He, practical, looking RIGHT at Xiaoyu off panel. Her face in the middle of the panel; the wall behind is the quiet area. The gate is still OPEN; she stands in the gateway, the landing behind her.
‹Shall we scan his notebook into Willow? Then it would know what he wrote.›要不把他的本子扫进小柳?那他写的东西它就都知道了。
Same morning. Close on Grandpa in the olive armchair, his hand flat on the notebook in his RIGHT cardigan pocket, looking LEFT, firm and twinkling. His face in the middle of the panel; the wall behind is the quiet area.
‹My notebook is mine.›我的本子是我自个儿的。
Same morning. Xiaoyu kneels by the armchair at the RIGHT, typing one line on her phone with her RIGHT thumb, the phone held the ordinary way so we see its back; Grandpa sits at the LEFT in the armchair, watching her. Two faces in the middle band; the wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹We will give Willow only the one line about the yellow pill. Nothing else.›只把黄药片那一行告诉小柳,别的一个字也不给。
Same room, light again. Grandpa raises his LEFT wrist to his mouth to speak to the cream band, mock stern; Auntie Zhang at the RIGHT laughs behind her hand; Xiaoyu, between them, laughs with wet eyes. Three faces in the upper middle of the panel; the floor and chair below are the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹Listen, computer. If you want to know me, walk to the lake with me.›你听着,机器。想认识我,就陪我走一趟湖边。
17
Monday 14 September, seven in the morning, clear early sun, the mist lifting. At the stone table Grandpa sits on his stool at the LEFT, glasses ON, steady, moving a cream piece on the carved board from a game in Wu's notebook; Auntie Zhang sits on the far stool; Xiaoyu stands at the RIGHT with a paper cup. The small tea cart stands far back by another table. The cream wristband is on Grandpa's LEFT wrist. Three faces in the middle band; the willows and sky above are the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
On the white pill, the dizziness went away in three days. Grandpa walked to the lake on his own two legs.换回白药片,不出三天,头晕就好了。外公又用自己的两条腿走到了湖边。
Same morning. Close on Grandpa's LEFT wrist resting on the stone table beside the carved board, the cardigan cuff above it, the cream band's orange light glowing. No face. The grey stone around it is the quiet area.
‹Mr Chen, your blood test is due on Thursday.›陈爷爷,您周四该去验血了。
Same morning. Close on Auntie Zhang leaning in, eyebrows up, a small smile, looking down and RIGHT at the band off panel. Her face in the middle of the panel; the willow behind is the quiet area.
‹Is it? And how do you know that?›是吗?你又是怎么知道的?
Same morning. Xiaoyu at the RIGHT holds her phone up in her LEFT hand facing Grandpa, so we see only its BACK. Grandpa at the LEFT, laughing, holds a round magnifying glass up in his RIGHT hand towards the phone's screen, playing the careful checker. Auntie Zhang in the middle laughs at him. All low in the picture. Three faces low in the lower middle of the panel; the lake and willow above are the quiet area for the box. The people are solid and opaque.
USING AI WELL. AI chat tools are often very good, but they can be wrong while sounding sure, in odd ways a person would not be. So check what matters, take extra care when a case is new or unusual, and check even a smooth answer before you rely on it.用好AI。AI聊天工具常常很好用,可它会错得很肯定,还错得很怪。要紧的事要核实,遇到新的、少见的情况更要小心。答得再顺,也要核对过才能当真。
‹Good question. Make Willow show where it read that.›问得好。让小柳说出处。
Same morning, from above. The newest page of the red notebook lies open on the stone table, small lined cream paper painted BLANK, one line of Grandpa's handwriting lettered in afterwards; his RIGHT hand with the short pencil is just lifting away from the page at the edge. The grey stone around is the quiet area.
That morning he wrote about Friday. "11 September. Xiaoyu checked it all properly."
九月十一日 小雨查清楚了。九月十一日 小雨查清楚了。
18
Monday, two in the afternoon, white afternoon light. Professor Lin stands at her standing desk at the LEFT, reading a single printed page held in her RIGHT hand, its back to us; Xiaoyu stands at the RIGHT, hands at her sides. Two faces in the middle band; the pale wall above is the quiet area. The people are solid and opaque.
‹You missed Friday's deadline.›周五的期限,你没赶上。
‹I was checking a model that was sure and wrong. It is all on this page.›我在查一个错了还特别肯定的模型。都在这一页上。
Same white light. Close on Professor Lin, reading, one eyebrow up, looking down and LEFT at the page off panel. Her face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area.
‹One old man is a single case. A thousand old people are research.›一位老人,只是一个个例。一千位老人,才算研究。
Same light. Close on Xiaoyu, looking LEFT at Professor Lin off panel, steady. Her face in the middle of the panel; the pale wall behind is the quiet area.
‹Then I will bring you a thousand.›那我就给您找来一千位。
Same afternoon, back at the long desk by the window. Teo at the LEFT turns his chair to the RIGHT towards Xiaoyu, so we see his LEFT ear, bare, with a small smile; Xiaoyu sits down beside him at the RIGHT and opens her laptop, its back to us. Old campus buildings outside. On a cork board on the wall above the desk are pinned six small photos facing us, painted with NO letters: five show a brown cow standing on green grass, and the sixth shows a brown cow standing on a yellow sandy beach by the sea, circled in red pen. Two faces low in the lower middle of the panel; the bright window wall above is the quiet area for the box. The people are solid and opaque.
WHEN THE CASE IS NEW. A model does best on cases like the ones it learned from. In 2018 a model that looked for pneumonia on chest X-rays partly used a clue about which hospital the X-ray came from, not only the lungs. At a hospital it had never seen, that clue no longer helped, and it made more mistakes.遇到新情况。模型遇到跟训练时相似的情况,表现最好。2018年,一个从胸片上找肺炎的模型,除了看肺,还部分靠“这张片子来自哪家医院”这条线索。换到一家它没见过的医院,这条线索就帮不上忙了,它错得更多。
I will help. I am good at finding what a model has never seen.我帮你。找模型没见过的东西,我最拿手。
19
Monday, half past six in the evening, dusk, the sky deep blue with a last band of gold, the lake still, lamps coming on along the path. From behind, the two sit on a lakeside bench, Grandpa at the LEFT and Xiaoyu at the RIGHT with her head on his shoulder; we see only their backs and heads. Across the water, on the side of a garden tower, a big screen has lit, too far to read, its light lying on the water. No faces. The quiet sky above is the area for the caption.
That evening we sat by the lake. Across the water, a screen came on.那天傍晚,我们坐在湖边。湖对岸,一块大屏幕亮了起来。
Dusk. The big screen on the garden tower fills the picture, its frame edges visible. On it Haoran, twenty-three, stands on a stage under one soft spotlight, a dark charcoal jacket over a white t-shirt, square black glasses, one wired white earbud in his LEFT ear (he is three-quarter to the viewer's LEFT, so we see that ear), speaking. Behind him a plain dark stage and one large softly glowing orange round light like Lantern's button. A banner strip under him is painted BLANK, the words lettered in afterwards. The dark stage around him is the quiet area.
Lantern now cares for older people in a hundred cities.小灯现已在一百座城市照护老人。
Dusk. Close on Grandpa, looking up and RIGHT at the screen off panel, screen-light on his face, warm, remembering. His face in the middle of the panel; the deep blue sky behind is the quiet area.
‹That is Haoran, the boy from the flat across the hall. He held my hand before he left.›那是对门的浩然。他走之前,还拉过我的手呢。
Dusk. Close on Grandpa's LEFT wrist resting in his lap, the cream band's small orange light glowing, and Xiaoyu's RIGHT hand coming to rest over it. Her face above at the RIGHT, three-quarter, screen-light on it, understanding. One face in the upper middle of the panel; the dark bench and lap below are the quiet area. A feeling picture.
Willow was built on Lantern, Haoran's AI. His company was behind the voice that changed Grandpa's pill.小柳是用浩然的小灯做底子的。给外公换药的那个声音,背后是他的公司。
Dusk, wider again, from the side. The two sit on the bench; Grandpa's other hand, his RIGHT, now rests over Xiaoyu's hand on his wrist. Across the lake at the upper RIGHT, the big screen on the far garden tower faces the viewer squarely, flat and front-on as in 20.3 and 20.4, never turned sideways; Haoran's tiny lit face on it, its glow shining on the water. The quiet sky above is the area for the captions.
Back in the summer of 2032, Haoran's little Lantern had told Grandpa's neighbour Mr Sun, "I don't know, and it matters. Please ask your doctor first."2032年夏天,浩然做的小灯对邻居孙爷爷说过,“这个我不清楚,可这事马虎不得。您先问问医生。”
Next: Chapter 14. Not Everyone Is Heard.下一章:第十四章 没被听见的人
20

The ideas, a little slower

The stairs and the review are in the pictures. Here are the ideas in words.

On page 4 Willow answers in a smooth, sure voice. A language model is trained to predict the next piece of text, so it writes what is likely given everything before it. Most of the time likely text is also true text, because most of what the model learned from was written by people trying to say true things. But likely and true are not the same, and the gap between them is where the best-known failure of chat assistants lives. Researchers call fluent output that is not supported by the facts "hallucination". Willow's "no problems before" is the story's example, a likely sentence laid over a real visit.

On page 5 the screen shows six cases that never existed. In 2023 two lawyers in New York filed a brief in a personal injury suit against an airline, and it cited court decisions that were not real. One lawyer had asked ChatGPT for supporting cases, and it had produced plausible names, case numbers and quotations. The judge found that at least six were made up. He fined the lawyers and their firm 5,000 dollars and told them to write to the real judges whose names had been used falsely. The court's main criticism was that they kept standing by the cases after doubts were raised. Professor Lin's line, "certainty is not evidence", is the lesson of that case.

On page 9 Teo explains why a model guesses. There are four causes that overlap. The training goal rewards plausibility, and the most likely ending to "The capital of a made-up country is" is a word that sounds like a city. Facts seen only once are learned poorly, and in 2025 Adam Kalai and colleagues argued that some errors on such facts are expected even when the training data has no mistakes. Most tests give a point for a right answer and nothing for "I don't know", so a model tuned to score well learns to guess, like a student on a multiple-choice test with no penalty for wrong answers. And fluency hides error, because the tone is the same whether the answer is right or wrong. Teo's "Willow isn't lying" is also a point about words. Some researchers prefer "confabulation" or "fabrication" to "hallucination", because hallucination suggests a mind seeing things, and a model has no perceptions to be mistaken about.

On page 10 Xiaoyu asks about a broken leg that never happened. A model that has never seen a fact must still produce something, and Willow's answer is the story's version of that. A real care system might answer differently, and a good one would say that it cannot find a record. The point is the pattern. Ask about something nobody ever wrote down, and a model can still answer, in the same warm voice, with something that only sounds right.

On page 14 the record from 2031 is a lesson about looking things up. Many assistants now search a collection of documents first, paste the best matches into what the model reads, and answer from them while pointing to where they came from. This is called retrieval-augmented generation, and Patrick Lewis and colleagues described it in 2020. It cuts down made-up answers but does not end them. Ziwei Ji and colleagues, in a 2023 survey, separate two kinds of error. An intrinsic one contradicts the source it was given, as a summary that changes a date. An extrinsic one adds things the source cannot confirm. Willow's summary of the 2031 visit did the second, because it added "no problems" to an eye check.

On pages 15 and 16 Grandpa's notebook beats the machine. That is not a fact from the research, it is a link to it. Willow could only read what had been put into its computer, and the paper notes from the Lotus Lane clinic never were. Before you trust a sure answer about something that matters, ask where it came from, and whether the thing that would prove it wrong was ever written where the machine could see it. Dr He asking Willow "How do you know?" is the question that works on people too.

On page 18 the mood of the whole chapter is spelled out. These tools are often very good, and their mistakes are often strange. They can be wrong while sounding sure. So check what matters, notice when a case is new or unusual, and treat a smooth answer as a draft, not a verdict. Training a model to say "I'm not sure" more often helps, at some cost in how helpful it feels. None of the fixes removes the problem entirely, as of 2026.

On page 19 Teo says he is good at finding what a model never saw. A model does best on cases like the ones it learned from, and can fail when the world shifts outside them. This is called out-of-distribution failure. In 2018 John Zech and colleagues found that a model trained to find pneumonia on chest X-rays could also tell which hospital an X-ray came from, partly from markings on the image. Because disease rates differed between hospitals, this helped it score well without learning medicine, and its accuracy dropped at a hospital it had not seen.

One last sentence for families. If an app or an AI says something about medicine that worries you, ask a doctor or a pharmacist, and never stop or change a medicine on your own. In the story Xiaoyu does not stop the pill herself. The doctor does.

What is true here

Tiny changes, big mistakes

In 2013 Christian Szegedy and colleagues found that changing each pixel of a photo by a tiny, carefully chosen amount can make a neural network confidently wrong, though a person sees no difference. In a famous example from Ian Goodfellow and colleagues in 2014, a panda labelled "panda" with about 58 percent confidence became "gibbon" with over 99 percent after a faint pattern was added. The effect reaches the real world. In 2018 Kevin Eykholt and colleagues put a few stickers on a real stop sign and made a road-sign classifier read a speed-limit sign in most test conditions, and Anish Athalye and colleagues 3D-printed a turtle that a classifier called a rifle from most angles. Language models have their own versions, which people call jailbreaks.

The wrong lesson

A learning system picks up whatever pattern most easily reduces its error. Robert Geirhos and colleagues called this shortcut learning in 2020. In 2016 Marco Ribeiro and colleagues built a classifier on purpose to tell wolves from huskies from photos where every wolf stood on snow. It learned that snow means wolf. They did it to test whether people could spot the problem. Cows photographed on a beach were not recognised as cows by a model trained on cows on grass (Beery and colleagues, 2018). Shown a cat shape filled with elephant skin, an image network tends to say "elephant", where a person says "cat" (Geirhos and colleagues, 2019). People take shortcuts too, such as a student who memorises answers, but we have ways of noticing, and a model usually does not.

Fog, frost and a four-year-old's voice

In 2019 Dan Hendrycks and Thomas Dietterich tested image classifiers under fog, blur, frost and pixelation, and found that they lose far more accuracy than people do. Everyday shifts are everywhere. A voice assistant trained mostly on adult speech may struggle with a small child. A model trained on text up to a certain date knows nothing after it. A car trained in sunshine meets snow. Dario Amodei and colleagues listed robustness to this kind of shift among five concrete problems in AI safety in 2016.

SourcesJi and colleagues (2023), Survey of hallucination in natural language generation.Mata v. Avianca, Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023), opinion and order on sanctions, 22 June 2023.Kalai, Nachum, Vempala and Zhang (2025), Why language models hallucinate.Lewis and colleagues (2020), Retrieval-augmented generation for knowledge-intensive NLP tasks.Zech and colleagues (2018), Variable generalization performance of a deep learning model to detect pneumonia in chest radiographs.Koh and colleagues (2021), WILDS, a benchmark of in-the-wild distribution shifts.Hendrycks and Dietterich (2019), Benchmarking neural network robustness to common corruptions and perturbations.Geirhos and colleagues (2020), Shortcut learning in deep neural networks.Geirhos and colleagues (2019), ImageNet-trained CNNs are biased towards texture.Ribeiro, Singh and Guestrin (2016), "Why should I trust you?"Beery, Van Horn and Perona (2018), Recognition in terra incognita.Szegedy and colleagues (2013), Intriguing properties of neural networks.Goodfellow, Shlens and Szegedy (2014), Explaining and harnessing adversarial examples.Eykholt and colleagues (2018), Robust physical-world attacks on deep learning visual classification.Athalye and colleagues (2018), Synthesizing robust adversarial examples.Amodei and colleagues (2016), Concrete problems in AI safety.

What is pretend

Bridge City and everyone in it are made up. So is the whole world of 2037, with its garden towers, solar boats and robot tea cart. Willow, its wristband, its pill box and every word it says are made up, and so are the city care service, Lakeview Care Home and the review. Lantern and its hundred cities are made up. The yellow and white pills are made up too, and no real medicine is meant, nor are the Lotus Lane clinic, Dr Gao, Dr Liu and the 2031 eye check. So are the broken leg that never was, Bridge City University, Professor Lin, her lab and Teo. The story is set a few years from now and imagines a hopeful future. No real care product is described, and in real life medicines are changed by doctors and pharmacists. Grandpa's memory is drawn from no one in particular, and the story makes no medical claim.

Who made this

Yingying Fu created this manga. She chose the story and its people, directed every page, and edited every word and picture. The words were drafted with Claude, an AI by Anthropic. The pictures are made with AI image generation, painted panel by panel from her direction and checked and corrected by hand.

再慢慢讲一遍

那一跤和那场评估,画里都有。道理,这里用文字再讲一遍。

第四页,小柳答得又顺又肯定。语言模型训练时学的是预测下一段文字,所以它写出来的,是接在前文后面最可能出现的话。多数时候,最可能的话也是真话,因为它学过的文字,大多是人们想说真话时写下的。可“可能”和“真实”毕竟是两回事,聊天助手最出名的毛病,就出在这条缝里。读起来通顺、却没有事实依据的输出,研究者叫它“幻觉”。小柳那句“以前吃过,没出过问题”就是故事里的例子,在一次真实的看诊上,安了一句听着最像的话。

第五页的屏幕上,是六个根本不存在的判例。2023年,纽约两名律师代理一起起诉航空公司的人身伤害案,向法院交了一份诉状,里面引用了并不存在的判决。其中一名律师让ChatGPT帮忙找对己方有利的判例,它给出了像模像样的案名、案号和引文。法官查明,至少有六个是编造的,判两名律师和他们的律所罚款5000美元,还责令他们写信给那些名字被冒用的真法官。法院批评最重的一点,是有人提出疑问之后,他们仍然坚持这些判例是真的。林教授那句“自信不是证据”,讲的就是这个案子的教训。

第九页,特奥解释模型为什么会猜。原因有四条,彼此交织。一是训练目标奖励的是“说得像”。“某个虚构国家的首都是”后面,最可能接的就是一个听着像城市名的词。二是只见过一次的事实学不好。2025年,卡莱等人论证,即使训练数据里一个错误也没有,在这类事实上出一些错,本来就在意料之中。三是大多数测试答对得分,答“不知道”不得分,为了考高分调出来的模型,就学会了猜,好比选择题答错不扣分,学生自然会蒙。四是流畅会掩盖错误,因为不管对错,它的语气都一样。特奥说“小柳不是在撒谎”,也是在讲用词。有些研究者主张用“虚构”或“编造”代替“幻觉”,因为“幻觉”听上去像是有个头脑看见了不存在的东西,而模型根本没有知觉,也就谈不上看错。

第十页,小雨问起一条从没断过的腿。模型没见过的事,它照样得写出点什么,小柳的回答就是故事里的样子。真实的照护系统未必这么答,好的系统会说找不到记录。这里要看的是背后的规律。问一件谁也没写下来的事,模型照样能用同样温和的口气回答你,说出来的话只是听着像真的。

第十四页那份2031年的记录,讲的是先查再答。如今不少助手会先在一批文件里检索,把最相关的几段放进模型要读的内容里,再根据这些内容回答,并注明出处。这种做法叫“检索增强生成”,是路易斯等人在2020年提出的。它能减少编造,却不能杜绝。纪等人2023年的综述把这类错误分成两种。一种是“内在的”,跟给定的原文矛盾,比如摘要改了日期。另一种是“外在的”,添上了原文无法证实的内容。小柳转述2031年那次看诊,犯的是第二种,它给一次配眼镜的检查添上了“没出过问题”。

第十五、十六页,外公的本子赢了机器。这一点不是研究里的结论,但和研究相通。小柳只能读到录进电脑的东西,荷花巷诊所的纸质病历从来没有录进去。一件要紧的事,对方说得再肯定,也先问问这话从哪儿来,再想想,能证明它错的那条记录,有没有写在机器看得到的地方。何医生问小柳“你是怎么知道的”,这句话拿来问人也一样管用。

第十八页把整章的态度说透了。这类工具常常很好用,可犯起错来往往很怪,错的时候也说得很肯定。所以要紧的事要核实,遇到新的、少见的情况要格外留心,答得再流畅,也只当草稿,不当定论。把模型训练得多说几次“我不确定”,会有些帮助,代价是它显得没那么有用。到2026年为止,还没有哪种办法能彻底解决这个问题。

第十九页,特奥说他擅长找模型没见过的东西。模型遇到和训练数据相似的情况时表现最好,一旦现实超出这个范围,就可能出错。这叫“分布外失效”。2018年,泽克等人发现,一个训练来从胸片上找肺炎的模型,还能认出胸片来自哪家医院,部分靠的是片子上的标记。各家医院的患病率不同,认出医院就能帮它拿高分,用不着真懂医学。到了一家没见过的医院,它的准确率就下降了。

最后再叮嘱一句。如果某个应用或人工智能说了关于用药的话,让你担心,请去问医生或药师,千万不要自己停药或改药。故事里,小雨也没有自己停药,停药的是医生。

哪些是真的

小小的改动,大大的错

2013年,塞盖迪等人发现,只要把照片上每个像素按精心算好的方式改动一点点,神经网络就会非常肯定地认错,人眼却看不出任何区别。古德费洛等人2014年举过一个有名的例子。一张熊猫照片,模型以约58%的把握认作“熊猫”,叠上一层淡淡的花纹后,它却以超过99%的把握认作“长臂猿”。这种攻击在现实中也行得通。2018年,艾霍尔特等人在真的停车标志上贴了几张贴纸,在多数测试条件下,路牌识别模型都把它认成了限速标志。阿特雷等人则用3D打印做了一只乌龟,分类器从多数角度看都说它是步枪。语言模型也有自己的版本,人们叫它“越狱”。

学歪了

学习系统会抓住最容易降低误差的那种规律。2020年,格尔霍斯等人把这叫作“捷径学习”。2016年,里贝罗等人特意做了一个分辨狼和哈士奇的分类器,训练照片里的狼全都站在雪地上,结果它学到的是“有雪就是狼”。他们这么做,是为了测试人能不能看出问题。用草地上的牛训练的模型,认不出海滩上的牛(比里等人,2018年)。把猫的轮廓填上大象的皮纹,图像网络多半说是“大象”,人却说是“猫”(格尔霍斯等人,2019年)。人也会走捷径,比如死记答案的学生,但人有办法察觉,模型通常没有。

雾、霜,和四岁孩子的声音

2019年,亨德里克斯和迪特里希在雾、模糊、霜冻和像素化等条件下测试图像分类器,发现它们的准确率下降得比人多得多。这类日常变化随处都有。主要用成人语音训练的语音助手,可能听不懂小孩子说话。模型读的文字截止到某一天,之后发生的事它一概不知。在晴天里学会开车的汽车,总会遇上下雪。2016年,阿莫迪等人提出人工智能安全的五个具体问题,应对这类变化的稳健性就是其中之一。

出处Ji and colleagues (2023), Survey of hallucination in natural language generation.Mata v. Avianca, Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023), opinion and order on sanctions, 22 June 2023.Kalai, Nachum, Vempala and Zhang (2025), Why language models hallucinate.Lewis and colleagues (2020), Retrieval-augmented generation for knowledge-intensive NLP tasks.Zech and colleagues (2018), Variable generalization performance of a deep learning model to detect pneumonia in chest radiographs.Koh and colleagues (2021), WILDS, a benchmark of in-the-wild distribution shifts.Hendrycks and Dietterich (2019), Benchmarking neural network robustness to common corruptions and perturbations.Geirhos and colleagues (2020), Shortcut learning in deep neural networks.Geirhos and colleagues (2019), ImageNet-trained CNNs are biased towards texture.Ribeiro, Singh and Guestrin (2016), "Why should I trust you?"Beery, Van Horn and Perona (2018), Recognition in terra incognita.Szegedy and colleagues (2013), Intriguing properties of neural networks.Goodfellow, Shlens and Szegedy (2014), Explaining and harnessing adversarial examples.Eykholt and colleagues (2018), Robust physical-world attacks on deep learning visual classification.Athalye and colleagues (2018), Synthesizing robust adversarial examples.Amodei and colleagues (2016), Concrete problems in AI safety.

哪些是虚构的

桥城和城里的每个人都是虚构的,2037年的整个世界也是,包括花园高楼、太阳能小船和送茶机器人。小柳、它的手环、药盒和它说的每一句话,市照护中心、湖景养老院和那场评估,也都是编的。小灯和它的一百座城市是编的。黄药片和白药片是编的,不指任何真实的药。荷花巷诊所、高医生、刘医生和2031年那次配眼镜的检查,那条从没断过的腿,桥城大学、林教授、她的实验室和特奥,同样都是虚构的。故事设在几年后,想象的是一个充满希望的未来。书中没有描写任何真实的照护产品,现实中,调整用药要靠医生和药师。外公的记忆不取材于任何具体的人,故事也不作任何医学上的论断。

谁做了这本漫画

这本漫画由 Yingying Fu 创作。故事和人物由她决定,每一页由她导演,每一句话、每一幅画由她修改。文字是和 Anthropic 的人工智能 Claude 一起起草的。画面由人工智能生成,按她的要求一格一格地画,再逐张检查、修正。

© 2026 Yingying Fu. All rights reserved.© 2026 傅颖盈。保留所有权利。